When Arsenal and PSG met in the revolutionary League Phase last October, few could have imagined that around seven months later they would find themselves in the semi-finals, battling it out for a place in the final in Munich. At the time, Luis Enrique’s team had not yet fully blossomed, at least on the continental stage: despite dominating possession, the Parisians failed to capitalize on their chances and ended up being skewered twice (2-0, goals from Havertz and Saka) by the more cynical and ruthless Gunners. In fact, at the end of the match, the PSG coach congratulated Arsenal for pressing high from the opening minutes.
Since December, however, the French champions have grown exponentially, thanks in part to the signing of Kvaratskhelia, who arrived from Napoli for around €80 million. Today, few teams in Europe play better than PSG, who are also driven by young talents such as Barcola and Doué. In short, the feeling is that the Spanish coach has managed to create a “perfect machine,” capable of winning Ligue 1 well in advance—their dominance at home is embarrassing—but above all of starting to shine in the Champions League (the club’s primary objective for over a decade) as soon as the difficulty coefficient rose.
Another English team for Luis Enrique
PSG, after thrashing their compatriots Brest in the play-offs, took the scalps of two English teams, the hot favourites Liverpool – the Reds had dominated the League Phase – and Aston Villa.
Luis Enrique is now relying on the rule that “good things come in threes,” as another Premier League club, Arsenal, stands in their way. To return to the final after five years, the Parisians will have to emerge victorious from their doubleheader with the Gunners, coached by another Spaniard, Mikel Arteta.
Compared to PSG, the Londoners appear to be further ahead in their development. Although they have not yet managed to win the Premier League – this year they will have to settle for second place again after chasing Liverpool in vain – in Europe, Odegaard and his teammates have shown that they have what it takes to aim for the Champions League they have dreamed of for so long (Arsenal’s last final was in 2006, when they lost to Ronaldinho’s Barcelona). Their journey in the European competition has been more straightforward than PSG’s. In the league, the Gunners finished third behind Liverpool and Barcelona, and in the knockout stages, after thrashing PSV Eindhoven 9-3 on aggregate, they pulled off a major upset by eliminating reigning champions Real Madrid, beating them both in London and in Spain.
Both Arsenal and PSG have somewhat snubbed their latest league commitments, demonstrating that the cup is now their top priority. The Gunners drew 2-2 with Crystal Palace, while the French side suffered their first defeat in this season’s Ligue 1, losing 3-1 at home to a more motivated Nice. Luis Enrique will have his entire squad available in London: the only uncertainty is in attack, where Doué and Barcola are vying for a place. Arsenal have several absentees, including the suspended Ghanaian Partey. Gabriel Jesus, Havertz, Gabriel, and Tomiyasu will also be missing. Calafiori is doubtful.
Odds comparison
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Prediction
Arsenal and PSG have met five times previously, with the Parisians never managing to get the better of the English side. The record stands at three draws and two wins for the Londoners, including last October’s victory. However, the match that took place in the league should not be misleading. Luis Enrique’s team has made great strides since then and is ready to play its cards in this semi-final, which looks very evenly balanced on paper. For PSG, however, it will be difficult to emerge unscathed from a “fortress” like the Emirates Stadium. Arsenal have yet to lose in front of their fans in the Champions League and have done so only once in the Premier League, thanks in part to their ironclad defense (only two goals conceded in 12 cup games) and their style of play, which guarantees great balance between the two phases. It cannot be ruled out, therefore, that the total number of goals will be less than three.
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Probable lineups for Arsenal-PSG
ARSENAL (4-3-3): Raya; Timber, Saliba, Kiwior, Lewis-Skelly; Odegaard, Rice, Merino; Saka, Trossard, Martinelli.
PSG (4-3-3): Donnarumma; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Pacho, Nuno Mendes; Joao Neves, Vitinha, Fabian Ruiz; Kvaratskhelia, Dembélé, Barcola.