One point. Just one point in the next five games is all Argentina needs to officially qualify for the North American World Cup. The Albiceleste are almost certain to be able to defend the title they won in 2022 in the World Cup that the United States, Mexico and Canada will jointly host next year. The objective is one step closer after the narrow victory over Uruguay in the Clasico del Rio de la Plata: despite the heavy absences of Lautaro Martinez, Messi and Dybala, Lionel Scaloni’s Selección managed to beat the Celeste last Friday thanks to a flash of brilliance from Thiago Almada (0-1), who was able to break the deadlock in a match that had been very even up to that point.
Argentina continue to look down on everyone in the qualifying group: they have a 15-point lead over seventh-placed Bolivia. They also have a significant lead over second-placed Ecuador, who have 6 points less than the world champions. Arithmetic qualification could come in the highly anticipated match against Brazil, the great South American classic and one of the fiercest rivalries in the history of soccer. After two draws in 2024 (against Venezuela and Uruguay), the Verde-Oro got off on the right foot again, beating Colombia 2-1 and climbing to third place, with 21 points.
Seleçao, the driving force is Raphinha
Beating the Cafeteros, however, was not at all easy: despite creating more than twice as many goal scoring opportunities, Dorival Junior’s men only won it in injury time thanks to a goal from Real Madrid striker Vinicius, who sent the Brasilia stadium into raptures at the stroke of the ninth minute of injury time.
There are still many aspects to improve but for now the difference is being made by individuals: Barcelona’s midfielder Raphinha, for example, was outstanding and by far the best player on the pitch. For the Seleçao, mathematically qualifying for the World Cup is still a long way off, even if the 8-point lead over seventh place protects Dorival and his team from any nasty surprises. In Buenos Aires, the Brazilian coach won’t be able to count on defender Gabriel, who is suspended, and on goalkeeper Alisson, who has returned to Liverpool after the knock he suffered in Brasilia. In Argentina, on the other hand, Nico Gonzalez will be absent, having been sent off at the end of the match in Montevideo for kicking Uruguayan Nandez.
Odds comparison
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The prediction
Brazil’s last victory over Argentina dates back to 2019, considering both official matches and friendlies. Since then, the Albiceleste have always avoided defeat against their eternal rivals: four very tight matches, in which no more than one goal has ever been seen. This trend could be reversed at the Monumental: it wouldn’t be a surprise if Argentina, close to qualifying and struggling with many absences, couldn’t keep a clean sheet against the Seleçao, who may have a few more reasons to win than the world champions.
The probable line-ups for Argentina-Brazil
ARGENTINA (4-2-3-1): Emiliano Martínez; Molina, Romero, Otamendi, Tagliafico; Paredes, Mac Allister; Simeone, Enzo Fernandez, Thiago Almada; Julian Álvarez.
BRAZIL (4-2-3-1): Bento; Vanderson, Marquinhos, Leo Ortiz, Arana; Gerson, Bruno Guimaraes; Rodrygo, Raphinha, Vinicius Jr.; Joao Pedro.
POSSIBLE RESULT: 1-1