It really has a strange effect to see Brazil in fifth place after 12 qualifying rounds, so far from their historic rivals Argentina, top of the table with a +7 advantage. No, winning a place at the World Cup for North America shouldn’t be a problem for the Seleçao, since following the increase in the number of participants at the World Cup, the top six teams in the South American qualifying group will qualify (the seventh will have to go through the playoffs and only the bottom three will be eliminated). But the coach Dorival Junior can’t be fully satisfied with the performance of his men, too inconsistent so far.
There have been many ups and downs for a Brazil team that, despite having unlimited quality in all areas – especially in attack – continues to disappoint. Last November the Cariocas took some worrying steps backwards, drawing twice with Venezuela and Uruguay (both 1-1). As previously mentioned, they will qualify in the end, but in the remaining matches we expect them to at least try to raise their game. Their match against Colombia will be a good test, as they were beaten 2-1 in the first leg thanks to a brace from Liverpool striker Luis Diaz. The Cafeteros, despite having lost three of their last four matches, aren’t taking any risks: they’re one point ahead of Brazil in the standings and have a reassuring lead over the seventh-placed team.
Dorival had included Neymar in the squad but an injury has sidelined the Santos player: Endrick is in his place. Two excellent exclusions: Paquetá and Ederson. Ready to lead Colombia as usual is captain James Rodriguez – who now plays for Leon in Mexico after his adventure at Rayo Vallecano – while in attack, coach Nestor Lorenzo has put his faith in former Aston Villa player Duran, who went to play in Saudi Arabia in January.
Odds comparison
Brazil’s victory is quoted at 1.70 on Goldbet and Lottomatica and at 1.73 on Snai. The “Over 1.5” sign is quoted at 1.35 on Goldbet and Lottomatica and at 1.40 on Snai.
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The prediction
Brazil have never lost to Colombia in front of their fans (including the quarter-final of the 2014 World Cup): an unbeaten streak that is likely to continue, given the recent problems of the Cafeteros who, moreover, have only won once in six away games in these qualifiers. At least two goals overall.
The probable line-ups for Brazil-Colombia
BRAZIL (4-2-3-1): Alisson; Vanderson, Marquinhos, Gabriel, Alex Sandro; Gerson, Bruno Guimaraes; Rodrygo, Raphinha, Savinho; Vinicius Jr.
COLOMBIA (4-2-3-1): Vargas; Munoz, Lucumì, Sanchez, Mojica; Lerma, Rios; Arias, James Rodriguez, Luis Diaz; Duran.
POSSIBLE RESULT: 2-1