One of the most interesting round of 16 matches is the one between PSG and Liverpool, two teams that are dominating their respective leagues, Ligue 1 and the Premier League, and that want to go all the way in the top European competition. The Parisians, ready to attempt yet another assault on the coveted Champions League, are in a real state of grace: the project of Luis Enrique, who has definitively archived the era of the so-called “figurines” (many stars but little “team”), is starting to take off and this double challenge with the Reds will be a bit of a litmus test.
PSG are a steamroller at home and after 24 games they have a 13-point lead over second-placed Marseille. But again, Donnarumma and his teammates have finally acquired an identity compared to the past, when they depended too much on individuals. In the cup, after a difficult qualification that they only managed thanks to an acceleration in the last few days, the team led by the Spanish coach thrashed their compatriots from Brest in the all-French play-off: 0-3 in the first leg and even 7-0 in the return leg, in a double-header that was a walk in the park. Last weekend, however, it was Lille’s turn to be manhandled by PSG, who trounced them 4-1 at the Parc des Princes: once again, striker Dembélé scored, netting 24 goals between Ligue 1 and the Champions League. The capital club has won 10 matches in a row in all competitions and has not lost since the end of November.
Both teams are in great shape
Liverpool have also switched to autopilot, moving 13 points ahead of second-placed Arsenal thanks to their 2-0 win over Newcastle a week ago (their second consecutive win after the one they achieved away to Man City).
The Reds, despite having played one game more than the Gunners, have the Premier League in the bag and can now concentrate exclusively on the cup. No one, by the way, has scored more points than Arne Slot’s men during the League Phase: Liverpool were also impeccable in the championship phase, where they finished ahead of everyone else thanks to a haul of 7 wins in 8 games. On the subject of line-ups: Luis Enrique can field the best possible line-up and almost certainly, compared to the match against Lille, Kvaratskhelia, Vitinha and Pacho will return from the first minute. Slot, on the other hand, will have to deal with a few absences but they are not first-teamers: Gomez, Bradley and Morton are out.
Odds comparison
The “1X” team is quoted at 1.42 on Goldbet and Lottomatica and at 1.40 on Snai. The “Gol” team is quoted at 1.40 on Goldbet, Lottomatica and Snai.
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The prediction
Each side has won one of the only two previous meetings in 2018, when they faced each other in the group stage: the first leg ended 3-2 to the Reds at Anfield, and 2-1 to PSG in the return leg in Paris. We should see goals this time too, given the great form both teams are in: all the ingredients are there for a spectacular match, with PSG at least managing to avoid defeat. Keep an eye on the Expected Goals statistic too: the Parisians have scored many more goals than expected in the last month.
The probable PSG-Liverpool line-ups
PSG (4-1-2-3): Donnarumma; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Pacho, Nuno Mendes; João Neves; Vitinha, Fabian Ruiz; Kvaratskhelia, Dembélé, Barcola.
LIVERPOOL (4-3-3): Alisson; Alexander-Arnold, Konaté, van Dijk, Robertson; Gravenberch, Mac Allister, Szoboszlai; Salah, Luis Diaz, Jones.