Italy-France is a match valid for the sixth day of the group stage of the Nations League and is played Sunday at 8:45 p.m.: statistics, free-to-air TV, likely lineups, prediction.
It was supposed to be a tiebreaker of sorts for first place in League A Group 2 — and to some extent it still is — but after last Thursday’s results France, which surprisingly slipped to -3 from top-ranked Italy, will need a real feat to finish ahead of everyone. Like the Azzurri, Didier Deschamps’ Bleus have already pulled off a pass to the quarterfinals of the 2024-25 Nations League. However, to overtake Luciano Spalletti’s men on the final day of the group stage they need to win by more than two goals difference.
If not, Italy, which can therefore play for two results out of three – a narrow defeat would not change anything – would remain at the top of the group, thus facing one of the second-place finishers in the other three groups (the other benefit is that of being seeded in the qualifiers for the 2026 World Cup). In fact, in the event of a tie, the so-called avulse ranking would come into play, and direct matches, goal difference and goals scored, in that order, would be taken into account.
And since the first leg match last September ended 3-1 for the Azzurri, the transalpines need an even bigger success if they want to make the photo finish overtaking.
Italy unbeaten in Nations League
Optimal situation for an Italy that seems to have risen from its own ashes since this competition began: 4 wins and a draw in the 5 Nations League challenges, with Spalletti finally managing to give a precise identity to a selection that came out of the last European Championship in pieces.
In Belgium, the Azzurri achieved another success (0-1), this time also keeping their goal unbeaten: the goal of former Milan player Tonali after 10 minutes of play was decisive.
France, on the other hand, in a surreal atmosphere – the Saint-Denis stadium was armored and half-empty – got wrapped up by tailback Israel (0-0), which had not won a single point until then. Orphaned by Mbappé, the Bleus thus saw their winning streak come to a halt, stopping at three (two wins with Belgium and one with Israel). Italy and France have faced each other 40 times throughout their history: the Azzurri have come out on top 19 times, the transalpines 11. September’s victory ended a fast that had lasted since back in 2008 and allowed Italy to conquer the French capital after sixty-nine years.
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The Prediction
Italy is confident and should be able to at least avoid defeat against France, thus retaining first place in the Nations League group. Both are likely to score.
The probable lineups of Italy-France
ITALY (3-5-1-1): Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Buongiorno, Bastoni; Cambiaso, Frattesi, Locatelli, Tonali, Dimarco; Barella; Kean.
FRANCE (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Koundé, Konaté, Saliba, Digne; Rabiot, Kone; Nkunku, Olise, Coman; Thuram.
POSSIBLE RESULT: 1-1
