Paolini-Keys is a valid match for the fourth round of Wimbledon: analysis, statistics, news, schedule, predictions, live TV and streaming.
Red clay or grass, it makes no difference. Italian Jasmine Paolini’s magical moment continues unabated: even on the lawns of Wimbledon, where she had never won even a single match until last week, Italy’s number one is playing like a veteran. And for the first time she has gone all the way to the round of 16, consolidating her position in the Wta rankings. As of next Monday, she will be the new number 6 in the world.
What is most impressive about the tennis player originally from Castelnuovo di Garfagnana are the numbers. So far at Church Road, she has not lost a single set on the road, liquidating in two partials Spain’s Sorribes Tormo, Belgium’s Minnen and Canada’s Andreescu. Thanks to her success last Friday over the 2019 U.S. Open champion, Paolini has reached at least the fourth round in every Slam played during 2024 (eighth at the Australian Open and final at Roland Garros). A truly stellar year for the 28-year-old, who thanks to the progress achieved with the help of coach Furlan – her full-time coach from 2020 – can now hold her own against just about anyone, even those players who are physically more gifted.
The Tuscan goes for another feat against American Madison Keys, current world number 13 and a year older than her. A player who has won three of her nine trophies on grass.
Returning to the circuit only in March due to an injury that forced her to be out for five months, the U.S. player has so far been able to hold her own against Trevisan, Wang and Kostyuk, all of whom she cleared in two sets. This will be the second confrontation with Paolini. In February 2024, in Dubai, she barely gave up two games to the Italian. They were also supposed to clash in Montreal, also in 2023, but Keys forfeited shortly before taking the court.
Share comparison
Keices’ win is listed at 1.43 on Goldbet and Lottomatica and 1.45 on Snai. The “Under 24.5 game” sign is instead quoted at 1.54 on Goldbet and Lottomatica and at 1.53 on Snai.
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The prediction
Paolini has so far gone beyond her wildest expectations. The round of 16 at Wimbledon is a historic achievement for a tennis player who had not won a single match at the Championships. We expect her to give Keys, who remains favored in any case, a harder time this time. The American has more experience on this surface than the Italian and should come out on top in a challenge of less than 25 games overall.
