Holland-Italy is the final for third and fourth place in the 2022-23 Nations League Final Four and is scheduled for Sunday at 15:00: predictions.
Italy, no go. Spain, as in the last edition of the Nations League, was once again fatal for Roberto Mancini’s Azzurri, who in Enschede, in the Twente stadium, lost with the same result (2-1) as in the San Siro semi-final of 2021.
So the dream of returning to lift a trophy – it would have been the second of the Mancini era – fades, which would certainly have made the air that has been surrounding the national team for a year and a half now less heavy. And to chase away that bitter ‘aftertaste’ of the end of the cycle that has been going on since the failure to qualify for the World Cup in Qatar. Against the Roja, the conservative choices of the technical commissioner did not pay off, as he decided to rely on the block of the European Championship – 9/11 of the formation was made up of protagonists of the magical night at Wembley, between the pitch and the bench – lined up with a scholastic 3-5-2. A module adopted with the clear intention of preventing Luis de la Fuente’s dribblers from finding as many passing lines as possible. Italy lasted just one half on Thursday – they equalised almost immediately after Yeremy Pino’s goal with a penalty from Immobile – while in the second half they appeared completely at the mercy of their opponents, who found the decisive goal through Joselu in the 88th minute.
The last previous fixture was three years ago
A performance that was perhaps a little too reluctant. Which only added to the doubts surrounding the selector, who will be awaited in the upcoming Euro ’24 qualifying matches
Malen exults after Croatia goal
A rain of criticism also fell on Ronald Koeman, whose return to the Netherlands’ bench coincided with two defeats – France and Croatia, conceding a total of eight goals – and a victory, far from consoling, against lowly Gibraltar. From organisers of the 2022-23 Nations League Final Four, the Oranje already find themselves out. And now they will have to play the grim final for third and fourth place against Italy, with the aim of avoiding, rugby-wise, the so-called ‘wooden spoon’. Despite the not insignificant advantage of playing in front of their own public, van Dijk and his team-mates lost the semi-final against the Croatians in a daring manner (2-4): a decent first half was not enough to tame the proud chequered selection, who overturned the Netherlands in the second half with Kramaric and Pasalic. And, after conceding the 2-2 goal in the second half, they went on to score in extra time, taking advantage of further defensive inattentions by Koeman’s men. The last head-to-head between the Netherlands and Italy dates back to the Euro 2020 qualifiers: in the first leg the Azzurri came out on top (1-0), while the return leg ended in a draw (1-1).
The latest line-up news
Koeman is expected to confirm the 4-3-3 seen against Croatia. And it cannot be ruled out that he will also repropose the same eleven. Up front, in the offensive trident, Malen and Simons will act on the sides of Gakpo, while the midfield will be made up of Wieffer, de Jong and the Atalanta player Koopmeiners. In defence, Geertruida will partner van Dijk in the middle.
On the other side, Mancini is planning to switch to the more proven 4-3-3, but there will be more than a few changes. Frattesi confirmed in midfield, alongside Cristante and Verratti, while up front, Raspadori and Gnonto will have a chance, ahead of Zaniolo and Chiesa. The oriundo Retegui is favoured over Immobile. At the back there will be no Bonucci, protagonist in the negative against Spain: Toloi and Acerbi should play, but watch out for the possible novelty Buongiorno, called up at the last minute in place of Bastoni.
The Prediction
Italy have only beaten the selection of Malta in their last four matches. And in the remaining three matches it has scored only one goal (on a penalty kick), confirming the now atavistic difficulties at the offensive level. However, the Azzurri’s attack could break free against a defence, the Dutch one, which has conceded a total of eight goals in the last three outings. The Koeman-led selection – who may also have some extra motivation playing in front of their home crowd – remain slight favourites in a match of at least one goal per side and more than two in total.
The likely line-ups for Netherlands v Italy
- LAND (4-3-3): Bijlow; Dumfries, Geertuida, van Dijk, Aké; Wieffer, Koopmeiners, de Jong; Malen, Gakpo, Simons.
- ITALIA (4-3-3): Donnarumma; Toloi, Acerbi, Buongiorno, Dimarco; Verratti, Cristante, Frattesi; Raspadori, Retegui, Gnonto.
POSSIBLE RESULT: 2-1